The final element in the mix was the party's own establishment. This might, at first blush, seem surprising. Why should the old movers and shakers of the Conservative Party embrace a message of change? Was it not a reproach to all they had done and been? It was, but it didn't matter. The residue of Major's colleagues, most of the financial backers, would-be peers, and the reliable bevy of tame journalists who over the years have shown a touching or arguably shameless fidelity to whomsoever was in charge — these simply wanted to be once more close to power.

The formation of a Coalition government, back in 2010, at first seemed a tribute to the foresightedness of the Tory modernisers. Prominent exponents of the project, like Francis Maude and Oliver Letwin, had always hankered after links with the Liberal Democrats. Coalition particularly appealed to David Cameron, because Liberal Democrat votes offered a buffer against the Tory Party's unreconstructed Right, who could be rendered impotent and then gradually shunted out of the Commons. But it has not worked out.

The public justification for the Coalition was the need to avoid economic collapse. The Coalition parties were given a doctor's mandate. But their own skewed priorities meant they were incapable of applying it. The modernisers had always believed that Conservatives in the Thatcher era were too preoccupied with economics. (Cameron himself said as much before becoming leader and still believed it even after the financial crisis hit.) Modernisers thought that the economy would run itself, or at least mend itself, and that they could concentrate on softer, more appealing issues, like health and the environment. So despite the facade, the Tories, in truth, entered the Coalition with no sense of urgency about cutting public spending. It is now too late. The deficit is still swollen, debt is rapidly increasing, taxes are high, and growth remains absent or anaemic. There will be no economic gains by 2015 to claim victory at the election. The strategy has failed.

There is worse. For some modernising policy commitments linger on, because no one knows how to reverse them. Each will drive a nail into the Conservative coffin. The obsession with alternative energy will push up household energy bills, madden country dwellers, and disadvantage industry. Increasing overseas aid, while eviscerating defence, will give the right-wing press a field day. Above all, the legislation to redefine marriage, encapsulating the profound contempt which the party leadership has for the values of its supporters, will inflict bitterness up to the next election and beyond.