If 2013 looks remarkably like 1995, when it comes to the panic reading, there is reason to think that 2015 may look like 1997 when the votes are finally counted. Of course, nothing in politics is certain. But defeat clearly beckons. It will be traumatic. Yet a resurgence of collective madness afterwards can be avoided, if common sense breaks out beforehand.
The reckoning can begin now. The modernisers have not detoxified the Tory brand. They have simply made it unrecognisable, even to Tories. Before refashioning its image, the party will need to re-find itself. It must re-create its membership, which has collapsed. It must establish a working relationship with UKIP, those "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists", who are now, in truth, the Tory Party in exile. All this will take time. A political party cannot charge down its eccentrically chosen route, trampling opposition, belittling critics, insulting supporters, only to find itself in a cul-de-sac, and not expect to be bruised by them when it finally doubles back.
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