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If 2013 looks remarkably like 1995, when it comes to the panic reading, there is reason to think that 2015 may look like 1997 when the votes are finally counted. Of course, nothing in politics is certain. But defeat clearly beckons. It will be traumatic. Yet a resurgence of collective madness afterwards can be avoided, if common sense breaks out beforehand.

The reckoning can begin now. The modernisers have not detoxified the Tory brand. They have simply made it unrecognisable, even to Tories. Before refashioning its image, the party will need to re-find itself. It must re-create its membership, which has collapsed. It must establish a working relationship with UKIP, those "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists", who are now, in truth, the Tory Party in exile. All this will take time. A political party cannot charge down its eccentrically chosen route, trampling opposition, belittling critics, insulting supporters, only to find itself in a cul-de-sac, and not expect to be bruised by them when it finally doubles back.

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Peter, cornwall.
June 8th, 2013
2:06 PM
Brilliant article, diagnosis spot on though cure I'm not so sure off. Cameron's legacy will not be "gay marriage" but the destruction of the Conservative party which I have up until the local elections voted for all my life."Gay marriage" has highlighted a problem I had not previously realised in British politics. The Godless right are as much to be feared as the Godless left. The "cancer" in the Conservative party is clearly too widespread and therefor inoperable. But who's fault is that? Is it not merely reflecting the collapse in Christian values and morality in the wider society?

Anonymous
June 7th, 2013
12:06 PM
"Politics is a brutal game. But for sustained personal unpleasantness, the Conservative modernisers deserve some kind of award." How very very true. I remember attending a Westminster meeting over ten years ago when the modernising movement was getting going. The bile, malice and sheer vituperation directed at anyone with remotely centre-right leanings (especially if they were old or middle-aged and white) was a wonder to behold, with at least three current ministers fully involved. What's more, they haven't changed.

Anonymous
June 2nd, 2013
2:06 PM
"A political party cannot charge down its eccentrically chosen route, trampling opposition, belittling critics, insulting supporters, only to find itself in a cul-de-sac, and not expect to be bruised by them when it finally doubles back." Indeed. And the first and most important part of Tory 'reckoning' surely must be to liberate the party from the modernisation project's two most disastrous architects: Cameron and Osborne.

Chrysostom
June 2nd, 2013
8:06 AM
A percipient and well-argued article. Cameron must go if the Tories are to have any chance. And they must drop the attack on marriage, the biggest vote-loser of all time. Were they to do so, then individual MPs would gain enormously if they voted against the attack on marriage. Almost all Labour MPs voted to wreck marriage: and so at the next election, the Tories must ensure that their constituents know all about this. Labour will try to wriggle out but dishonesty should be exposed. Thus, this vote-losing subject could actually become a vote winner for the Tories but they must drop the measure - and Cameron - NOW.

Peter63
June 1st, 2013
7:06 AM
The shape of things to come, politically speaking, was exhibited by the Eastleigh by-election. There the LibDems were superbly organised and garrisoned, no effort was left unmade or less than brilliantly targeted by them, and they got 32.06% of the votes cast. UKIP and the Tories' votes combined came to 53.17% of the votes cast. The Tories found out that David Cameron/George Osborne's brilliant strategy of getting rid of ordinary members on the ground throughout the country; and running elections entirely in the interest of a Parliamentary Party which is more and more required to be a team exclusively working for them; and doing it all by gaining big-cheque bribes from big business and therewith national publicity and mail-shots, not old-fashioned presences and canvassing; obtained for them third place in a two-horse race. Cameron, Theresa May and Co have done for the Conservatives what Gerald Ratner did for his inherited family firm. Once the Tory Party dies out completely - this year, next at latest? - the anti-'liberal' consensus vote everywhere will be enormous.

MartinW
May 29th, 2013
9:05 PM
A devastating critique, and correct in every particular.

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