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First, with their capital given, banks can respond to an externally imposed increase in their capital/asset ratios only by shrinking assets. That is – or should be – obvious. With loans to the private sector as their main asset, they had to tell their borrowers that in future facilities would not be available on the same scale or would be more expensive. In other words, the withdrawal of credit lines and the increase in the cost of bank finance in late 2008 and early 2009 were the direct result of the increase in capital/asset ratios imposed on the banks by officialdom (Brown, King, etc.), in its determination to be tough on the City of London. 

Secondly, banks' liabilities take two main forms: deposits, mostly owed to the general public, and capital. Capital can be either equity or bonds, but we need not bother too much over the details here. Deposits are money, capital is not. If banks' balance sheet is given, the effect of recapitalisation — of raising the proportion of capital to total liabilities — must be to reduce the quantity of deposits (that is, of money). More concretely, when a financial institution subscribes for newly-issued bank equity, it pays over a sum from its deposits to the bank. The deposits disappear from the economy. Money is destroyed and new claims on the bank, ordinary shares, are created. 

Brown and King might protest that in 2008 and 2009 officialdom's insistence on more bank capital served vital objectives. It made banks less risky, which was important in protecting the taxpayer (in case Northern Rock, RBS and so on could not repay loans from the Bank of England) and giving them greater creditworthiness in the global inter-bank market where they needed to raise new funds. Even old-fashioned central bankers would acknowledge that, ultimately, banks must try to be well-capitalised so that they can justify themselves in the marketplace. Commercial banks should avoid dependence on exceptional (and expensive) support from the central bank. 

All the same, the demands that banks shed risk assets and build up their capital were responsible for the drastic change in financial conditions in 2007 and 2008, and hence for the crash in the rate of money growth. Indeed, an article in the Bank of England's Quarterly Bulletin earlier this year contained some fascinating numbers on the subject. It quantified the extent of the damage to the quantity of money from both the weakness of bank lending and "banking sector stabilisation", as it termed the recapitalisation exercise. In its words, the issuance of new equity and bonds by the banks "acted as a negative shock to the supply of broad money". The article's authors judged that "a reasonable estimate" of the "total drain" on broad money from the net issuance of equity and bonds was "around £240 billion since the recession began". (The Quarterly Bulletin article was called  "Understanding the recent weakness in broad money growth" and written jointly by Jonathan Bridges, Neil Rossiter and Ryland Thomas. To get a sense of scale, £240 billion is much more than 10 per cent of the UK's M4 quantity of money. Remember that Friedman and Schwartz believed that a fall of a third in the quantity of money was responsible for the US's Great Depression.)

We are now in a better position to see why Osborne should take a sceptical view of Vickers's recommendations. The mishandling of Britain's banks and a collapse in money growth blighted the closing years of the 1997-2010 Labour government, and caused a deep recession which wrecked Gordon Brown's reputation for competence in running the economy. The central mistake was to be so tough on the banks that they stopped expanding their businesses, which checked the growth in the quantity of money. 

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MDV
December 12th, 2011
6:12 PM
@nalelbro I admit it was not explained fully but it was only a comment. If you disagree with Volker can we hear your reasons.

James Hargrave
October 9th, 2011
2:10 AM
Nothing I have heard of the benighted abd beknighted King from people who had dealings with him in his academic days suggests someone in the least degree fitted to be Governor - indeed he is no banker, he merely rhymes with one. And various other economic historians I talked to in late 2007 were disgusted at his failures of understanding. He is a moral hazard. As far as one could tell he was so busy looking over his shoulder at Europe and in introducing pointlessly modish corporate governance into the Banks' Court of Directors that he failed to see the open grate in the middle of the pavement and fell straight down it. But, somehow, this ass keeps landing on his feet.

Postkey
October 2nd, 2011
10:10 AM
As always? an informative and interesting article. However, No more boom and bust. G.B. He was parroting the high priest of neoclassical/neoliberal economics – R. E. Lucas. In the 2003 presidential address to the American Economic Association, Robert E. Lucas, Jnr of the University of Chicago said: “My thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression-prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes, and has in fact been solved for many decades.”

nalelobro
September 8th, 2011
1:09 PM
@GOODCRED You say this as if it is received wisdom and a "given". Not only is it not correct, it is a delusion to think that retail banking is by definition safer than investment banking. Au contraire, as any glance at Northern Rock's or numerous other lenders mortgage books amply demonstrates. Please try not to regurgitate uncritically politically inspired nostrums.

goodcred
September 2nd, 2011
10:09 PM
but deep down politicians know separating investment banking from retail banking would be the best way to reduce the risk. The tax payer wouldn't have to bail out investment banks if they fail.

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