Because of the multiple pressures jihadists have experienced in Algeria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, al-Qa’eda has been consolidating its affiliates in Iraq or the Islamic Maghreb, while extending its operations to some of the vast sub-Saharan Sahel states from Mali and Mauritania eastwards to Somalia and Yemen. The pro-Islamist Yemeni government has been releasing al-Qa’eda operatives, including those who killed 17 US sailors on the USS Cole in 2000, and who then went on to launch further attacks on US interests, as well as Belgian and Spanish tourists. More tourists have been killed in Mauritania, which became unstable enough to warrant the cancellation of the Paris-Dakar rally. Two sets of police raids in Turkey, in January and April, which netted about 50 suspects, have shed light on al-Qa’eda’s attempts to build a parallel society there, reminiscent of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere. The police discovered a network of underground mosques and a separate education system. As in Britain, potential terrorists went abroad for training.
One “jihadi region” where people receive training is, of course, Iraq. The occupation may have exacerbated the global insurgency, but it did not inaugurate activities that go back to the 1970s. They included Noor Mohammed’s jihadist revolt in Waziristan, and such apparently bizarre events as Juhaiman al-Otaibi’s invasion of the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979, before Islamism erupted in Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya, the Middle East and South Asia.
After three years of horrendous death tolls in Iraq, the US has succeeded in turning the “Sunni Awakening Movement” against the foreign al-Qa’eda-inspired jihadists, many of them from Libya or Saudi Arabia. Local people balked at such Islamist customs as breaking the fingers of smokers or shooting anyone selling alcohol. The Sunni counter-insurgents may not relish US occupation, but they like the jihadist reign of terror even less. Despite Britain’s embarrassing cession of control of Basra to rival militias, a similar Shiite tribal backlash has occurred against the Iranian-backed forces of Muqtada al-Sadr.
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