Giving “hope” to potential jihadist recruits in foreign countries should assume tangible forms: installing fresh water systems or building schools, as well as substantial practical assistance for the victims of such natural disasters as earthquakes or the Asian tsunami, which the leading Islamist cleric Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi claimed was God’s punishment of materialistic Indonesians and Malaysians. The combination of aid from the West, rehabilitation schemes and more aggressive counter-terrorism forces explains why South East Asian jihadism is in disarray. A positive message from the West is far more important than insistence that other peoples should precisely replicate our democratic systems — in the virtual absence, certainly in the Arab Middle East, of the wider civic society that took several centuries to evolve in the West itself.
The application of military force and diligent police work is indispensable to defeating the insurgency. It resembles the game of “whack a mole”, not least in requiring resilience from the participants. Capturing or killing the leadership of al-Qa’eda is essential to stalling its momentum. Readers will recall that after a bloody military conflict that resulted in the deaths of 70,000 Peruvian peasants, a small team of detectives in 1992 captured the Sendero Luminoso leader, Abimael Guzman, after they tracked couriers bearing an ointment he needed to treat his psoriasis. The movement further fractured when his successor Oscar Ramirez was picked up in 1999.
So where is Osama bin Laden? He is believed to be sheltering in the Pashtun-dominated Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. According to the expert Steve Coll, he is in or around the Taleban stronghold of Miram Shah. Al-Qa’eda is seeking to establish a territorial base akin to the one it enjoyed under the Afghan Taleban. The August 2006 Waziristan Accords between Pervez Musharraf and the local tribal elders disastrously facilitated this regrouping. Some claim that the fractiousness of these tribes means that al-Qa’eda has to constantly focus on squaring some of them rather than mounting major international terrorist operations. The central organisation is also running short of money, judging by its reported dependence on robbing European banks to replenish its coffers, or jihadists who launder money through online gaming sites with the aid of stolen credit cards.
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