Judging by the Obama administrations muddled response to the unity deal, and this week's quixotic attempts to revive the peace process at a time when neither the Israelis nor Palestinians trust the US as a mediator, the US's room for manoeuvre on this issue has been significantly constrained. Whereas Egypt and Syria have quickly grasped the threats and opportunities posed by the Arab Spring, and have used the unity deal as a proactive means of exerting pressure, the Obama administration appears to still be painfully struggling to catch up.  They have not learned the lessons that this deal indicates about both the new opportunities and challenges raised by the Arab Spring; namely, that while Egypt's involvement in orchestrating the deal is intended to send a message without pushing the US and Israel too far, the current Syrian regime has no such limitations on its behaviour: it has tied its existential security to the threat of provoking regional conflict, and has already shown itself more than willing to do so.

Israel has been the reliable straw man of most Middle Eastern autocrats for the past sixty years, who have deflected international attention and domestic anger at their own dysfunctional states onto the Zionist bogeyman. This strategy has belied the loudly professed interest in securing a future for the Palestinians. Yet the survival of this trope in the context of the Arab Spring is extraordinarily ironic: the people who have taken to the streets across the Middle East and North Africa in protest have not done so out of outrage on behalf of the Palestinians, but because of their frustration at living in societies in which political liberties and economic opportunities ranged from limited to virtually non-existent.

In the meantime, the Palestinians themselves — best served by a peaceful settlement with the Israelis and the creation of a prosperous, secure Palestinian state — appear poised to be the losers in a very familiar regional game.  For all the promise of the Arab Spring, the Palestinian case may sadly demonstrate that the more things change, the more they stay the same.