On the one hand, the unity deal can be viewed as a sign of Syrian weakness, as Hamas only accepted the principle of a unity government because of its fear of losing its patrons in Syria. However, by granting Hamas permission to enter into the deal, Assad has been able to both demonstrate his continued power over the Palestinians, and has employed the reliable tactic of deflecting attention from his brutal repression of the Syrian uprising towards the supposed source of all regional ills, Israel-using the Palestinians as pawns to communicate that message.

Whether or not the unity deal fails or succeeds — and given the history of conflict and hatred between Fatah and Hamas, it seems unlikely to survive — the deal has the potential to yield violence, and may well strengthen Hamas' hand against Fatah and Palestinian independents. If the deal succeeds and an election is held in a year's time, polling indicates that the independents and Fatah will win an electoral majority. Hamas does not exactly have a history of respect for the results of democratic elections — as it took control of the Gaza strip by force after the short-lived unity government broke down in 2007.

Hamas would have little incentive to accept the electoral verdict and become part of a marginalised democratic opposition when its raison d'etre and source of power has been as an active resistance movement. Given its history and the internal logic of this unstable and fundamentally violent movement, an electoral defeat would give Hamas little choice but to attempt a coup or launch a third intifada against Israel to protect its power and restore its prestige.