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The trouble with China is not that it is commercially successful — if the West had not allowed Mao to triumph in the 1940s, the Chinese industrial revolution would have come two generations sooner — but that it is tyrannical and, like all tyrannies, lethally paranoid. It now has a satellite-guided missile system specifically designed to annihilate carrier battle groups of the US Sixth Fleet. This is bad news for America but even worse for China's neighbours. Even so, there is nothing the Chinese can do that the Americans cannot do better, especially in the field of military technology. It is only the mythology of decline that prevents the US from announcing a new "Star Wars" Strategic Defence Initiative.

The trouble with Ferguson's thesis is not that it lacks empirical evidence: he has accumulated an impressive range of statistics and other facts to buttress his argument. And he is right to point to the hole in the heart of the West: the cultural amnesia that has deprived generations of the core values that were once our secret weapon. "Maybe the real threat is posed not by the rise of China, Islam or CO2 emissions, but by our own loss of faith in the civilization we inherited from our ancestors."

No: the problem with Ferguson is that he attaches too little weight to the powers of recuperation and renewal that the United States and to a lesser extent Europe have demonstrated over the past two centuries. The American Civil War came close to strangling the infant republic in its cradle. The two world wars came even closer to damaging Europe beyond repair. Yet both America and Europe have risen repeatedly from the ashes. The most remarkable example of all is of course Israel: the combination of European Jewish refugees and American Jewish support has created one of the most resilient nations and dynamic economies in the world. China and India cannot match the West's ability to regenerate itself. Ferguson does not seriously deny this fact, but it is fatal to his argument. He actually devotes a chapter to debunking the mythology of decline, yet willingly succumbs to its lure himself. Ferguson is that exasperating combination, a good historian and a bad prophet. But it is the future, not the past, that has always brought the greatest rewards, tempting those who can pass for omniscient to satisfy the insatiable curiosity of the gullible.

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Lord Truth
February 28th, 2012
3:02 PM
Doc says,as of course most Americans believe, that The Founding Fathers..Constructed a government that strictly limited power, and divided it three ways... In fact the American system of government is merely an exact copy of the British system existing in 1776.There is a House of Commons..the Repressentatives,AHouse of Lords..the UNELECTED Senate (unelected until 1919) and a King whose powers are almost exactly those of George III His abilities to act are very limited as were GIII except for going to war.All discussion used the name King until it was realised that King was inappropriate for an elected monarch and President was chosen instead George III was a constitutional monarch and although Jefferson who wrote the Declaration of Independence,laughed at the rubbish he wrote about GIII being a tyrant ..saying I had to write something... much harm has been done over the years by those foolish lies Americas present problems come from copying the original British system producing endless blockages of political movement. In Britain where suspicion of the monarchy was endemic ,the monarchs powers were gradually stripped away until when Victoris arrived in 1837,she had only the power to choose the head of the military, a power removed a few months later.Since that time all British monacrchs have been little more than cardboard figures their ultimate power of refusing to sign an Act they found repugnant easily forestalled by forced abdication or changes to the constitution.America is still living in 1776. I have often thought that American politics that the world generally regards as boring would instantly spring to life if the Americans used the word King instead of President.Then the real picture would fall into place and everything become clear.

Paul Harmon
November 3rd, 2011
11:11 PM
Very good Doc. I agree with you completely.

Carl
November 3rd, 2011
10:11 AM
Minor quibble-The PLA missles would most likely be aimed at the US 7th Fleet (Western Pacific) instead of the 6th Fleet (Mediterranean)

Doc
November 2nd, 2011
5:11 PM
I like your optimism, and I hope you're right. However, we are a wicked people, and we get the gov't we deserve. I don't think the Founders '...trusted in the good sense of the American people.' They trusted in God, most of them, and they knew that people are basically wicked, not basically good. So they constructed a gov't that strictly limited power, and divided it three ways. Besides allowing a branch of gov't that had not descended as far into wickedness to block the wicked designs of another branch, it plays the wickedness of one branch against the other, often resulting in a most laudable gridlock. “No Man’s life liberty or property is safe while the legislature is in session” (Twain; possibly apocryphal). Unfortunately, eventually We the People succeeded in emulating the Israelites of old. They rejected the prophet Samuel, insisting on having a king. Here they had a direct line to God for any problem, and they wanted a king instead. One assumes that they were not all witless. Therefore only being in a state of denial can explain their demand for a king. Likewise, We the People have inherited our own Book of the Law; not God's Word itself, which is not after all a document directly prescribing a form of gov't, but the Constitution, which was clearly largely influenced by the knowledge of human nature granted by the Scriptures. And, like the Israelites, we have rejected it. At one point the Israelites completely lost their Book. We have not lost ours; rather We the People have allowed and encouraged our legislators to trample it into the dust, honoring it with their lips while their (and our) hearts are far from its principles of strictly limited gov't. We may bounce back. But it's hard to see how we can avoid the equivalent of societal meltdown. Raising taxes sufficiently to meet even a fraction of the 'entitlement' costs in the coming years will only ruin the economy further, resulting in less tax income, not more. Cutting the 'entitlement' payouts sufficiently to substantially ease the budgetary strain would have to be draconian enough that we might as well end them and be done with it. But without a growing economy to provide the employment and entrepreneurial opportunities the poor so desperately need, that way lies disaster. Plus, ending the entitlements is so politically unacceptable that hardly anyone except a few Libertarian and Constitution party 'cranks' even mention it. Rare is the politician willing to state the obvious, to point out that the Emperor has no clothes, that the 'entitlements' (SocSec, Medicare, Welfare, etc), as well as a whole vast swathe of other nearly untouchable Fed agencies (EPA, OSHA, FDA, ATF, etc, etc) are grossly unConstitutional. If we are granted a revival of common sense by the Lord, and we flock to the standard of the Constitution, and we insist that our legislators end the bureaucrazies that throw, not sand, but boulders into the gears of the economy of the Republic, then we might successfully grow our way out of this. Otherwise, this does not end well.

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