But that kind of complacency misses the point. On the things that matter, Russia is ahead. It is prepared to use force (as its adventure in Georgia showed). The West is not. From the Kremlin's point of view, that was a triumph. Russia did exactly what it wanted, and neither the European Union nor Nato was prepared to do more than issue angry press releases. The message of Western defeatism was underlined by an opinion poll in the Financial Times on 22 September that asked people in Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Britain and the US whether they would back the use of troops to defend the Baltic states in the event of a Russian attack. That, under the Nato charter, is a legal obligation. The poll showed that in Italy, Spain and - overwhelmingly - Germany, more people opposed the idea than supported it. That sends a dangerous signal to the Kremlin.

So the first thing to do is to show Russia that we mean business, that we will use force if necessary to defend our allies. That does not require expensive rearmament programmes or wild sabre-rattling. But it does mean that some sacred cows must be, if not slaughtered, at least moved from the middle of the road. Nato is crippled by a deeply-held belief that Russia is not a formal threat. That hamstrings efforts to collect intelligence about its capabilities; contingency planning about how to deal with an attack from Russia is explicitly forbidden by the rules under which MC 161, Nato's military committee dealing with threat assessment, operates. That must change. Nato must be allowed to work out how to defend places like northern Norway and the Baltic states from a Russian attack. By doing so, they make it even less likely that the plans will be needed.

We can also make our financial centres a lot less welcoming for Russian dirty money. That window of opportunity is closing, as rivals such as Dubai, Mumbai and Shanghai gain ascendance. But it is not yet closed. Over the past few years, we have made a lot of money by selling respectability, rather cheaply, to Russians who want access to our banks, accountants, lawyers and capital markets. Maybe we should sell rather less, while we still have some in stock.