A careful reading of the mullah's message showed:

• He and his advisers are now convinced that they cannot win on the battlefield. 
• A growing number of Taliban allies, especially among the 
• Pashtun tribes, are wary of endless war and anxious to reach some accommodation with whoever controls Kabul. 
• The mullah is prepared to abandon some of his most retrograde positions, especially with regard to the status of women, in the hope of securing power-sharing in Kabul. 

Mullah Omar is not alone in concluding that Nato cannot be driven from Afghanistan by the insurgency. Hekmatyar is also trying to wave an olive branch. In a recent interview, he echoed Omar's indirect plea for negotiations and power sharing.

As the second largest insurgent force after the Taliban, Hekmatyar's group has played a crucial role in spreading the fight to northern Afghanistan, notably Kunduz, where Omar never managed to gain a foothold.

The third major insurgent group is led by the Haqqani clan which has been responsible for much of the mischief done in the south-east. The clan seems to have concluded that it too cannot win this war. Last month, the Haqqanis sent their women and children to Abu Dhabi, where they have extensive business interests — a sign that they are preparing for an eventual retreat. They have also revived contacts with Saudi Arabia in the hope of joining Riyadh's efforts to promote a dialogue between President Karzai's administration and the insurgents. 

The three insurgent groups control only 11 of the country's 362 districts, accounting for less than one per cent of the country's population. Most of their main bases are in Pakistan and, in the case of Hekmatyar's group, Iran. 

And, yet, Washington is all abuzz with the "f" word, for what many see as looming failure in Afghanistan. Three years ago, the defeat industry tried to manufacture an historic defeat in Iraq but failed. Now, it is trying to fabricate one in Afghanistan.