The revered Mandela, Mbeki, whom many Africans refer to as a mampara (someone, generally a public figure, who has said or done something so idiotic that it boggles the mind), and the new President, the demagogic Jacob Zuma, are equally helpless. National government was weak and discredited when they got it, and with a majority African constituency, the indifference to national government per se prevails. It seems essential to take analysis further inside ordinary people's heads in order to grasp what is happening.
As crises grow, both blacks and whites are more deeply occupied with being who they separately are, in either case the only people they can imagine surviving. For blacks, salvation is the group and the opportunities the land offers, including other people's property. For whites, it is the individual and rules and other abstractions, including the calculation that the lifelong employees aren't profitable and can be sacked with only the statutory severance pay. Both groups will ignore anything a government tells them they ought to do if they do not feel like doing it and cannot be forced. There is consequently real horror in Mandela's effective encouragement of South Africans to do whatever they want. Aids is a case in point.
Both Johnson and Russell trace Mbeki's Aids denial in detail. Russell has a sizeable section about Mandela's few public statements on the issue and his return to silence under pressure from African traditionalists. Russell implies that campaigning by Mandela would have made a huge difference (as Mandela clearly felt later, in confessing his neglect). But doctors, medical researchers and activists, when admitting facts, are all saying the same thing: Aids prevention programmes in southern Africa have failed. The infection rate was unchecked in 1995, when I seemed to be the lone teacher at the University of Cape Town to put up a poster or explain the use of a condom to a class. It is unchecked now (except by natural means such as the debility and death of carriers), when prevention efforts are — in the private sector, anyway — fashionable, widespread and sometimes highly profitable.
It is hardest of all to think that government policy of any kind would have made any difference. Mandela has been passionate in speaking out against crime, and was ignored: crime grew like a weed both during his tenure and after it, uninfluenced by what even such an adored statesman wanted.
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