The Russian Enigma: Is The Bear Turning East?

March 2014

Our second exhibit is not connected with the Middle Ages or television: it is a futuristic novel by one of Russia's oligarchs, Mikhail Yuriev, entitled The Third Imperium. He started his political career among the liberals of the Yabloko party but moved to the opposite camp. The book is the report of a young Brazilian sociologist visiting the Russian empire in the year 2053; only four empires have survived. The Russian empire has greatly expanded, Russia has left all international organisations and withdrawn from all international treaties; it is therefore in much better shape than ever before. Provoked by America it has launched a preventive nuclear strike-though for humanitarian reasons only thinly populated states such as Utah and Nevada were targeted. America retaliated with a massive counter-attack but since Russia was protected by an anti-missile umbrella this had no effect whatsoever. The author goes into considerable detail: Russia is ruled by an emperor who is partly of Chinese origin. Russian and American oprichniki have agreed to receive the same salary, 1,216 roubles a month or $5,000 or 300 grams of gold. (The oprichniki appointed by Ivan IV, the Terrible, were predecessors of sorts of the KGB.) The Third Imperium, like other such political utopias, is vague on economic issues.

The anti-Western Russians seem to favour capitalism but usually in combination with autarky. No mention is made of the special interests of the ruling elite — above all, to stay in power. In 2013 Yuriev announced that he would take up residence in the US because conditions for investing in shale funds were better there.

My last exhibit is a document which is not the product of private (or part private) enterprise but an official statement. It is a report on human rights published in Janury 2014 by the Russian foreign ministry. It runs to about 150 pages and starts as follows: "The European Union continues to position itself as the main outpost in the struggle for human rights in the world." It continues: "The most pressing human rights issues include a steady growth of xenophobia, racism, violent nationalism, chauvinism and neo-Nazism. Grave violations of the rights of minorities, refugees and migrants are increasing and social rights of citizens are infringed upon."

That these violations and infringements happened in Western countries is unfortunately true, but to find this in a document issued by the Russian foreign ministry seems strange-to say the least.

Eurasianism is frequently mentioned as the main source of anti-Westernism. Its history goes back to the 19th century. It had its adherents in the Russian emigration after 1917 and there is now a Eurasian party in Russia, founded by Dugin. But the connection with anti-Westernism is not obvious. It always found more adherents among philosophers than politicians. Generally speaking, it has been a one-sided love affair: anti-Westernism is not that widespread in Central Asia and the Far East.

The idea of Russia as an Asian power rests on weak ground. Only a small part of the Russian population lives in the vast areas beyond the Urals; according to opinion polls many would leave if they could. The population of Russia is shrinking fast, according to UN projections. It will have declined from 139 million today to 109 million in 2050. Such predictions are not always accurate and in the last year more Russians were born than died. However, this is likely to be a blip; furthermore there is reason to believe that the rise in births occurred mainly among citizens of Russia who are not ethnic Russians.

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MunsuDC

April 10th, 2014
11:04 AM

Unbelievably low level of analysis, maybe that's normal for the West now. Facts are also misinterpreted. But let's point out just one thing: "more than 60 per cent of Russian citizens believe that the US is the greatest danger to world peace — three times as many as in Iran and most Arab countries. True, when asked in which country they would like to live if it were not Russia, an overwhelming majority of Russians opt for the US. But such contradictions" – what is contradictory? US is the dominant force of the era, the most aggressive one and the most prosperous. Unlike Iran or other countries the West hypocritically makes out to be "a threat", US has both the reason for world-wide agression and the power to back it up, and without any conspiracy theory we see americans intervening everywhere. It's certainly better to live inside such empire than be its target, even the dumbest people can understand this much. But the pretentious Western journalists cannot, huh?

AxelNyblaeus

March 27th, 2014
10:03 AM

These things are beginning to look more like wishful thinking than actual attempts to analyze Russia. Inconsistencies abound (Russia will be a "junior partner" with China, whereas its role in a relationship with the IMF, Europe and the US would be what, dominant? Even equal?). The lack of economic insight on the traditionalist Right is the only point where it is weaker than the West, which has no faith in itself, no actual population (it is deemed replaceable) and no sense of future or meaning. Also, how could one describe tha Arab spring as anything else than a horrible waste of human life?

Eugene_B

March 24th, 2014
3:03 PM

Toooo many lies.

March 24th, 2014
2:03 PM

Not a bad article but obtuse. No need to belabor obscure reasons why Russians fear the modern liberal West. They are reacting the same way millions of westerners are (with alarm) to what is increasingly perceived as morally degenerate and cultural/spiritual, and ultimately, economic suicide.

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