The Russian Enigma: Is The Bear Turning East?

March 2014

The problems facing Russia in the Muslim regions of the Caucasus (Dagestan, Chechnya, etc) are well-known. There are common interests between Moscow and the central Asian republics which were once part of the Soviet Union. But they are mainly economic in character. The presence of Russians in these republics is not desired and most of them had to leave after the Republics became independent.

When Yeltsin handed over to Putin, the task facing the former KGB colonel was far from enviable. In a seemingly desperate situation help came as the result of the oil and gas windfall. But for this it is difficult to imagine how Putin would have muddled through. And Putin also knew that in a difficult situation he could trust only old Chekists, so they became the power in the inner circle of some 20 people who have ruled the country since. He also knew that while normal relations were desirable with all countries, America, officially designated as a strategic partner, remained a rival if not an enemy. This had by and large been the party line during the Cold War, and while the Cold War was over, the interests of the two countries were in no way identical. If Russia wanted to regain even part of its earlier power, Washington remained the main obstacle. This remains the case with an America which has become weaker and less eager to intervene abroad.

These attitudes help to explain the new emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region. However, it is doubtful whether this new orientation, if it should prevail, will be of much benefit to Russia — it claims to be realpolitik but there is not much realism about it. It seems to be a classic case of false consciousness. Why this should be the case remains to be investigated. Is it because Russian leaders were so deeply offended by not being seen as an equal by America and Europe?

China's interest in Russia (as in Africa) is mainly that of a purchaser of raw materials. China is investing quite heavily in the US and Europe but not in Russia. Earlier, China imported a great deal of advanced machinery, including advanced weapon systems, from Russia but it now produces its own. If the relationship between Russia and China became closer, Russia's role would be that of a junior partner which, seen from Moscow, is hardly desirable

At the same time Russia has tried to establish a common economic space with some of the former Soviet republics, mainly in Central Asia but also with Armenia, Belarus and, if possible, with Ukraine. But the economic situation in these countries is precarious. They will gladly accept Russian economic help and cheap oil and gas but have little to offer in exchange. They are more likely to be a burden on the Russian economy than a source of strength.

Seen in this light, the reorientation of Russian foreign policy based on the tenets of Eurasianism seems to be a chimera. How to explain that these ideas have a great deal of support? Perhaps it is not a dangerous chimera, perhaps the price to be paid will not be very great. But it will certainly be a psychological blow to those who believed in it when they discover that once again they were victims of an illusion.

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MunsuDC

April 10th, 2014
11:04 AM

Unbelievably low level of analysis, maybe that's normal for the West now. Facts are also misinterpreted. But let's point out just one thing: "more than 60 per cent of Russian citizens believe that the US is the greatest danger to world peace — three times as many as in Iran and most Arab countries. True, when asked in which country they would like to live if it were not Russia, an overwhelming majority of Russians opt for the US. But such contradictions" – what is contradictory? US is the dominant force of the era, the most aggressive one and the most prosperous. Unlike Iran or other countries the West hypocritically makes out to be "a threat", US has both the reason for world-wide agression and the power to back it up, and without any conspiracy theory we see americans intervening everywhere. It's certainly better to live inside such empire than be its target, even the dumbest people can understand this much. But the pretentious Western journalists cannot, huh?

AxelNyblaeus

March 27th, 2014
10:03 AM

These things are beginning to look more like wishful thinking than actual attempts to analyze Russia. Inconsistencies abound (Russia will be a "junior partner" with China, whereas its role in a relationship with the IMF, Europe and the US would be what, dominant? Even equal?). The lack of economic insight on the traditionalist Right is the only point where it is weaker than the West, which has no faith in itself, no actual population (it is deemed replaceable) and no sense of future or meaning. Also, how could one describe tha Arab spring as anything else than a horrible waste of human life?

Eugene_B

March 24th, 2014
3:03 PM

Toooo many lies.

March 24th, 2014
2:03 PM

Not a bad article but obtuse. No need to belabor obscure reasons why Russians fear the modern liberal West. They are reacting the same way millions of westerners are (with alarm) to what is increasingly perceived as morally degenerate and cultural/spiritual, and ultimately, economic suicide.

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