Next month's Tory conference will be dominated by this theme, particularly on the fringe — where the action really takes place in public events organised by right-of-centre thinktanks. To coincide, several books of essays by MPs are scheduled for publication which will examine the policies a majority Conservative government might pursue. One will be titled After the Coalition — which sounds like a polite way of saying After David Cameron.

Much of this thinking is coming from those in the new Tory intake, whose members are the largest injection of new blood into the Tory party in parliament since the 1930s. They have been cast as being new-model Thatcherites to a man and woman. There is obviously more diversity of opinion among them than that, but in conversations one can detect a deep frustration with the compromises of coalition and a hunger for the Conservatives to be unashamedly conservative and free-market.

Any thought of a new Tory leader is a long way off, thanks to the weakness of the Labour opposition, although the Thatcherite Priti Patel is one women to watch. George Osborne is on manouevres, building support among MPs for an eventual run at the leadership — although it is difficult to see the Tories opting for another heir to Blair when the day arrives. In the cabinet the reforming Education Secretary Michael Gove (a close friend of Cameron) is impressive and his eventual leadership ambitions look increasingly credible.

Yet if Cameron was to decide this autumn to lead his hungry new MPs — and the rest of his party — in a new direction they would surely follow. Great leadership-as Churchill showed in 1940, or a resolute Thatcher did when she seemed temporarily adrift on a sea of Tory wets before the 1983 election — in the end is usually about defying difficult circumstances. The realities of coalition, the deep-set nature of the social problems bequeathed by an orgy of liberal moral relativism and the residual caution of some of Cameron's colleagues are formidable obstacles. Of course they are. But they can be overcome by force of conviction, will and an appeal to those who do much of the work and pay so many of the taxes in Britain (the strivers).

Respond bravely and Cameron's premiership can amount to something important. If he lets the caravan move on this time it is not difficult to see where he is headed.