In this new security environment it is the European allies that face the biggest challenges as the postwar equilibrium based on a Franco-German partnership comes under threat. First, they need to appreciate the seriousness of recent events and link both Russia's actions and the strategic dimension of popular dissatisfaction with the EU. The EU should no longer maintain a monopoly in the European political imagination as the guarantor of continental stability. Second, they need to reaffirm their commitment to Nato, not just through rhetoric but by putting aside national interest to agree new strategic priorities: defence and deterrence. Third, they will have to increase their share of defence spending and bolster the semi-permanent basing of Nato troops on the eastern edge of the alliance.
Nato urgently needs to digest the new European military reality. While its future strategy should be a return to collective European defence, the reality is that it will look nothing like the counterinsurgency operations of the past decade, nor the type of planned continental war that defined the previous 50 years. The response will ultimately have to be based on unified strategic agreement, reinvigorated defence spending and carefully rethought changes in the alliance's force structure, so that rapid reaction really is rapid.
Most importantly as Russia continues to exploit the liminal space between invasion and full de-escalation, America and its European Nato allies need to reconsider their "red lines" for escalating sanctions or possible military action. They also need to re-examine their self-imposed prohibition on the use of force, for without it there can be no effective deterrent to future aggressors.
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