Myth No. 6: Had it not been for Jo Cox’s murder, Leave would have won by a bigger margin
On June 16, one week before polling day, the Labour MP for Batley and Spen, Jo Cox, was shot and killed in her constituency. That morning Nigel Farage had unveiled UKIP’s now infamous “Breaking Point” poster. It appalled Vote Leave — it was just the kind of incendiary message which they believed would be toxic to swing voters.
Daniel Hannan, the Conservative MEP who played a leading role in Vote Leave, told us: “Just ask yourself, when you think about that Breaking Point poster, ‘who was ever going to be impressed by it?’ Can you imagine any voter who was on the fence saying to himself, there is a refugee crisis in Europe, I’d better vote Leave now?”
The juxtaposition of a young, female pro-Remain MP being killed with the Brexiteers coming over as nasty would deter voters from backing Leave, or so everyone assumed. It is far from clear that this is what happened. Campaigning in the referendum was suspended, and was somewhat more low-key when it resumed after a two-day hiatus. Opinion polls did move towards Remain, but this movement appears to have begun before the Cox shooting. Referendums tend to move towards the status quo in their final stretch, and the data suggests this had more to do with economic arguments. Cox’s death and the suspension that followed persuaded the Remain camp to back away from the last-minute alarmism they had been planning for the home stretch. In hindsight, it does seem there was a notable lack of Remain figures telling voters: “There is no going back if you vote Leave,” a message with some potency.
UKIP had been planning to run a whole series of very strong ads on migration. The poster that Farage unveiled that day was described to us by one of those responsible for it as “entry level . . . if that was level one, we had posters ready to go which were level three.” Cox’s death meant these never saw the light of day. If Hannan is right in his assessment, then the dumping of these posters will have boosted Leave.
A Brexit Tory MP with very different views on immigration to Hannan’s more liberal stance also believes that the shooting might have boosted Leave. It meant that voters were thinking about immigration rather than economics in the last few days of the campaign — and immigration was an issue that played strongly for the Brexit cause.
Myth No 7: Leave campaigners didn’t want to win
It is strange how many leading Leave players are convinced that others on their side were desperate to lose. Vote Leavers will argue that Farage and UKIP were hoping for a narrow defeat. They had seen what defeat in the Scottish referendum had done to support for the SNP and hoped that a Remain win would leave voters in northern Labour-held constituencies feeling cheated, creating the perfect storm for a UKIP breakthrough.
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