Why was the figure used? One explanation put to us by a director of Vote Leave is that it was a mistake, and simply the result of shoddy research — the campaign had a very small and inexperienced research team and it came up with the wrong figure. Cummings and Elliott started to use it in their literature and were too proud to back down. When challenged about the figure the response would come: “That train has left the station.”
Another explanation — unsurprisingly preferred by Elliott and Cummings — is that the figure was deliberately picked by them because it was defendable but less than robust. By chucking a dodgy number into the mix, the figure was endlessly debated. It would lead news bulletins and be repeated ad nauseam. The figure would stick in the public’s minds. The Remainers would have to come out with their own figure, which would also sound very large to voters. Saying we only send £190 million per week to Brussels is not a good starting point if you are defending the UK’s EU membership.
Elliott had pulled off the same trick in 2011 when he ran the successful No to AV campaign. He attached a rather dubious figure to the cost of changing the electoral system and asked voters if they wouldn’t rather spend the money on nurses. The figure was challenged and debated. Even though extremely trivial in terms of government expenditure, it stuck in people’s minds. Whether a cock-up or a stroke of genius, £350 million certainly worked on the ground. Campaigners have told us it was frequently repeated back to them on the doorstep and at street stalls, unprompted. One Vote Leave insider told us he found the use of £350 million, and its effectiveness, deeply unsettling. The lesson, he said, is that in politics it pays to lie.
Myth No. 5: Vote Leave ran the most sophisticated data-led campaign in British electoral history
“The Vote Leave campaign, led by Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings was, with its 17,410,742 votes, the most successful political campaign in British history.”
Or so argued Tim Montgomerie in The Times. In one sense this is true — more people voted for Brexit than have ever voted for anything else in the UK. In another sense it is the purest piffle. By Montgomerie’s logic, Stronger In was the second most successful campaign in British history.
With some justice, the referendum was described as the most important vote that the electorate would cast in their lifetimes; it was much more significant than the result of any single general election. Yet the ground war on both sides was woeful compared to even the worst-run general election campaign for a major party.
In the ground war of a general election, parties canvass voters not to persuade them to change their minds (obviously if someone does so, it’s a bonus) but to find out who their supporters are, and then to make sure they vote, be it by arranging postal ballots or by encouraging them to turn out on the day. Canvassing enables the major parties to build up a picture of their supporters over a number of elections.
Another explanation — unsurprisingly preferred by Elliott and Cummings — is that the figure was deliberately picked by them because it was defendable but less than robust. By chucking a dodgy number into the mix, the figure was endlessly debated. It would lead news bulletins and be repeated ad nauseam. The figure would stick in the public’s minds. The Remainers would have to come out with their own figure, which would also sound very large to voters. Saying we only send £190 million per week to Brussels is not a good starting point if you are defending the UK’s EU membership.
Elliott had pulled off the same trick in 2011 when he ran the successful No to AV campaign. He attached a rather dubious figure to the cost of changing the electoral system and asked voters if they wouldn’t rather spend the money on nurses. The figure was challenged and debated. Even though extremely trivial in terms of government expenditure, it stuck in people’s minds. Whether a cock-up or a stroke of genius, £350 million certainly worked on the ground. Campaigners have told us it was frequently repeated back to them on the doorstep and at street stalls, unprompted. One Vote Leave insider told us he found the use of £350 million, and its effectiveness, deeply unsettling. The lesson, he said, is that in politics it pays to lie.
Myth No. 5: Vote Leave ran the most sophisticated data-led campaign in British electoral history
“The Vote Leave campaign, led by Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings was, with its 17,410,742 votes, the most successful political campaign in British history.”
Or so argued Tim Montgomerie in The Times. In one sense this is true — more people voted for Brexit than have ever voted for anything else in the UK. In another sense it is the purest piffle. By Montgomerie’s logic, Stronger In was the second most successful campaign in British history.
With some justice, the referendum was described as the most important vote that the electorate would cast in their lifetimes; it was much more significant than the result of any single general election. Yet the ground war on both sides was woeful compared to even the worst-run general election campaign for a major party.
In the ground war of a general election, parties canvass voters not to persuade them to change their minds (obviously if someone does so, it’s a bonus) but to find out who their supporters are, and then to make sure they vote, be it by arranging postal ballots or by encouraging them to turn out on the day. Canvassing enables the major parties to build up a picture of their supporters over a number of elections.
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