The latest elections in Arab countries were focused on bread and butter issues rather than the large abstractions that had dominated Arab politics for decades, such as reviving the caliphate, uniting all Arab countries, and wiping Israel off the map. And almost everywhere, Islamist parties sounded more credible; for decades they have been providing the services and welfare measures that despotic regimes couldn't or wouldn't offer to most citizens.

Arab Islamists have also enjoyed massive financial support from oil-rich states, notably Saudi Arabia and Qatar. According to estimates, in Tunisia an-Nahda spent twice as much as all pro-democracy parties combined. In Egypt, an-Nour, believed to be sponsored by Qatar, outspent even the Brotherhood by a factor of four to one.

Another factor favoured the Islamists: the absence of forces that had played major roles in Arab politics since the 1940s. Pan-Arab nationalists were nowhere in sight, their prospects wrecked by their identification with repressive regimes, especially in Egypt. The once-powerful Arab Left, diminished by the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the conversion of China to capitalism, was almost totally absent. The Arab national-socialist movement, the Baath (Renaissance), was also largely written out of the script because of its identification with Saddam Hussein and the Assads, father and son. And yet nowhere did the Islamists manage to persuade at least half of the electorate to vote for them. Although the goal was wide open, they still could not score.