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An Islamist Winter?
January/February 2012


Unlike what happened in Iran 30 years ago, Arab Islamists shut theologians out of the picture. In Iran's first presidential election, the candidate of the Shia clerics Hassan Habibi collected less than 5 per cent of the votes. In Egypt, the ulema (theologians) from the Al-Azhar Seminary, the Sunni world's most prestigious establishment, called for a postponement of elections in unison with the pro-democracy groups in Tahrir Square while the Muslim Brotherhood insisted they should be held on time. Pushing the ulema into the background, Arab Islamists fielded a leadership of academics, engineers, doctors and other professionals, among them many women.


More importantly, perhaps, following the model established in Iraq, the Islamists also agreed to give women a share of parliamentary seats: 50 per cent in Tunisia, 25 per cent in Egypt and 20 per cent in Morocco.


The model for Arab Islamists is the Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP) that swept to power in 2002 by accepting the secular constitution established by Atatürk, the founder of the Turkish Republic. AKP has recruited its front-line leaders, including President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, from among professionals rather than Islamic scholars and theologians.


Despite efforts to hide or at least partially cover their true colours, Arab Islamists have so far failed to win a straight majority in any elections. Nor are they likely to do so any time soon.


In Tunisia, an-Nahda won less than 40 per cent of the votes in a 70 per cent turnout, compared to the Turkish AKP's 43 per cent in 2002. In Morocco, PJD won 22 per cent in a 45 per cent turnout, securing 107 of the 395 seats in the National Assembly. The low turnout was partly due to the boycott by the February 20 coalition of pro-democracy parties that demanded a new constitution limiting the king's powers.

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A reader from NY
January 2nd, 2012
12:01 PM
While I agree with the premise and conclusion of this piece, I am as bewildered as the previous reader ("Orientalism") by Mr. Taheri's depiction of the Turkish government as a "model" of secular Islamic democracy. As Turkey's Islamist PM Erdogan vies for accession to the EU, on the one hand, and to fill the regional power vacuum left by Mubarak's ouster and the Arab Spring, on the other, one must look to events of the last 18 months and wonder how independent a truly secular government in an Islamist society can be, particularly when that society derives its intellectual, moral and spiritual guidance from its religious scholars and theologians - NOT its politicians. Moreover, to offer Turkey's NOMINAL separation of state and religion as a beacon to the Arab world is as naive as the presumption that the Islamic Brotherhood's newfangled secular campaign platform is to be taken at face value. I've often thought the Occupy Wall Street activists would do well to look East for a better appreciation of their "99 vs. 1" mantra; but, if this movement has anything in common with the Arab Spring, it's that both were fomented by passions rather than a plan. One can rail against social injustice, economic hardship and political corruption, but there is a world of difference between identifying a problem and knowing how to fix it. Absent a solution and the means to implement it, there can be no remedy - or revolution.

Orientalism
January 1st, 2012
7:01 AM
Informative and well summed up. However, some may argue that we are seeing the following now in Turkey as the military security regime that protected secularism is being dismantled.... the description of Iran post 1979 revolution resonates with many Turks these days... you could replace mullahs for the ruling AKP party. 'the mullahs and their minions were infiltrating the apparatus of the state, placing their people in strategic positions within the bureaucracy, the judiciary and the media, and creating paramilitary squads. They accepted elections on the basis of one man, one vote, once' And this also applies to Turkey when talking about military repression of Islamist parties.. 'They know how to hide their true colours and bide their time. If it is foolish to overestimate their strength when they are part of a broader picture, it is deadly to underestimate their capacity for doing harm when they seize all levers of power.' Some may say, if the popular vote wants a more pro-Islamic run country so be it, but as the writer also mentions 'obsessions such as the Israel-Palestine issue, anti-Americanism, vilification of minorities and anti-woman programmes' are old Islamists discourse and are anti-democratic, in my opinion. Today,we are seeing a visible backwards trend in Turkey on these issues. Turkey noteably has the highest number of journalists in prison. Most live in fear of reprisal for having a critical voice. Wire-tapping by the pro-government police force is common. Turkey as a model?

Sarat Kumar
December 26th, 2011
8:12 PM
It is not really important whether the Islamists allow tourists to drink alcohol or even whether muslim women would be veiled, scarved or not. Will they: Amend constitutions to allow non muslims to occupy the highest political, military and social offices in Arab and Muslim countries? Allow all religions and atheists to preach and propagate their beliefs peacefully? Adopt constitutions without references to Islam? As someone who has lived in the Middle East for 14 years, let me tell you, Mr Taheri (I know you dont need my telling) the Arabs in particular and Muslims in general are light years away from these concepts.

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