The second certainty is that, despite its success in toppling several military-security regimes, the Arab Spring has not produced a recognisable alternative. This may be the first people-based revolt in history that has not created a party to translate its victory into political power. For example, the best-known figures in the Egyptian uprising publicly assert that they do not seek a political career. All they want is to act as "the conscience of the people", according to the novelist Alaa al-Aswany. The Egyptian elections included the spectacle of pro-democracy groups returning to Tahrir Square to call for a boycott of the polls.

The third certainty is that the Arab Spring has radically changed Arab political discourse. Scores of new or long-forgotten words and phrases have entered the day-to-day lexicon of Arab politics, among them democracy, pluralism, secularism, transparency, accountability and the rule of law. One reason for this may be the fact that, perhaps for the first time, political power in the Arab world has not emerged from royal palaces, army barracks, tribal circles or mosques. The forces that toppled the military-security regimes came from offices, universities, factories and shops, and demonstrated their power in the streets.

The fourth certainty, shaped by the first post-revolt elections held in Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, and three post-Saddam elections in Iraq, is that parties with an Islamic flavour are the best organised in the countries concerned, and are thus able to claim a major share, in some cases the lion's share, in government.

In Iraq, the two wings of the ad-Daawah (The Call) party have led two successive coalition governments with support from the Kurdish parties and the Sadrist movement backed by the Islamic Republic in Iran. In Tunisia, the Islamist an-Nahda (Revival) Party is in talks with two secularist parties to form a coalition government. Under a compromise deal, an-Nahda would get the post of prime minister while the secular parties get the presidency of the republic.